Benchmarking Judgmentally Adjusted Forecasts
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
On-line variable live-adjusted displays with internal and external risk-adjusted mortalities. A valuable method for benchmarking and early detection of unfavourable trends in cardiac surgery.
OBJECTIVE Benchmarking and early detection of unfavourable trends. METHODS We implemented a dedicated project-orientated data warehouse, which continuously supplies data for on-line computing of the variable live-adjusted displays (VLADs). To calculate the expected cumulative mortality, we used the multi-variate logistic regression model of the EuroSCORE model. In addition to the external Eur...
متن کاملRandom Scenario Forecasts Versus Stochastic Forecasts
Probabilistic population forecasts are useful because they describe uncertainty in a quantitatively useful way. One approach (that we call LT) uses historical data to estimate stochastic models (e.g., a time series model) of vital rates, and then makes forecasts. Another (we call it RS) began as a kind of randomized scenario: we consider its simplest variant, in which expert opinion is used to ...
متن کاملFreight transport development forecasts in enterprises management
In this study, an investigation of long-term forecasts relating to the development of the transport sector in Poland is performed, including the ones by 2030 and 2050. Selected transport development forecasts from the perspective of the membership of Poland in the European Union are presented and most of all, from the perspective of national studies. The basement for the review was the prognosi...
متن کاملBenchmarking.
We introduce a theory of ranking sets of accomplishments in the presence of objectively incomparable marginal contributions (apples and oranges). Our theory recommends benchmarking, a method under which an individual is deemed more accomplished than another if and only if she has achieved more benchmarks, or important accomplishments. We show that benchmark rules are characterized by four axiom...
متن کاملCombining forecasts
To improve forecasting accuracy, combine forecasts derived from methods that differ substantially and draw from different sources of information. When feasible, use five or more methods. Use formal procedures to combine forecasts: An equal-weights rule offers a reasonable starting point, and a trimmed mean is desirable if you combine forecasts resulting from five or more methods. Use different ...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: International Journal of Finance & Economics
سال: 2016
ISSN: 1076-9307
DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.1569